Grand Game Theory of Geo-politics and Trade.
‘Game theory’ uses computing and logic to predict what people will do when they are competing against each other. It tries to apply science to strategy. It creates a model that forecasts decisions and counter-decisions for a given scenario. According to declassified CIA report published by Yale University press in 1995, the game theory’s predictions have 90% accuracy rate. This theory is used by businesses. CNBC ran QUAD through game theory in February this year to know the future of QUAD. A report published by CNBC about the game theory applied on QUAD is available on Google for readers.
I am presenting this topic here, because I believe the ‘Game theory’ predictions are wrong. As per the CNBC report, the prediction states that almost every country will join the QUAD against China other than few countries like Russia, North Korea, Pakistan.
The world news in the last few days was all about Indo-pacific and Asia-Pacific. “China-specific” will be the more appropriate term. This will make us think what is so much about Asia? There is nothing about Africa, despite starvation and just 4% vaccinated population in Africa. There wasn’t any major change in economy, currency, trade or a war in Asia in the recent past.
The answers are that the world suffered due to the pandemic. The world’s efforts to blame and punish China failed. Either it is true, or China was able to establish that the corona virus is not a man made calamity. Australia pushed for investigation on origination of corona virus and wanted to punish China. China imposed trade sanctions on Australian wheat export. China was not much affected by the pandemic. The dispute between China and Japan over the DIAOYU islands existed from long ago. China claims to have sufficient evidence that the uninhabited islands known as DIAOYU belongs to it. Japanese call it SENKAKU islands and say it’s part of Japan.
Boarder Issue between China and India is something which existed since Indian Independence. And both the nations didn’t do much to resolve it peacefully. All these issues, including skirmishes at Galwan valley in 2020 contributed for the reinforcement of QUAD. Economical, trade and territory issues of China in South China sea is part of the race, which the world is involved in.
China has become the economic engine of the world and fulcrum of world’s commerce. China is the largest exporter in the world since 2009. USA, EU, Japan and South Korea are among the largest trade partners of China. Thus making China the world’s hub for trade and world’s factory. All G7 countries including United States depend heavily on China. And none of this country has really made any attempt to reduce the dependency. The QUAD, AUKUS are all an attempt to control China and to limit it’s growth. If not, US reaction to China’s rise and a concern for losing it’s hegemony in the region.
These efforts will not help US and other QUAD members much, than few short term gains. Reducing dependency on China, creating more job opportunities, empowering manufacturing sector in their respective countries are few of the measures for long term gains. Unfortunately, the recent events like QUAD summit and formation of AUKUS did little to address these issues.
Quad was formed in 2007 with an idea of Asian Arc of Democracy. Australia pulled out from QUAD in 2008. Kevin Rudd terminated QUAD, signalling closer relationship with China. QUAD is an informal alliance or a group of countries who wants to strengthen rules against China, in the Indo-pacific region. Any nation with same interest can join QUAD. QUAD members announced Covid-19, global health, infrastructure and climate as their agenda in the recent QUAD summit. But in reality, QUAD is an anti-China alliance due to Beijing’s trade sanctions on Australia, boarder issues with India, aggressive moves in the east and the South China sea in the recent years.
None of the G7 countries or the QUAD members can afford a war with China. It will be a huge loss for the QUAD members, G7 countries and to the world, if China were to collapse. China is world’s number one lithium producer, the future of mobility. China is world’s number one semiconductor manufacturer, which drives the present and future of technology.
China caters finished goods like electronic equipment, data processing technology, medical equipment, optical gear, clothing and other textiles to the rest of the world. Australia banned Chinese brand xiaomi, but China is the world’s biggest manufacturer of iPhone as well. China advancing steadily in every sphere will help the world in one way or the other. All G7 countries are against China’s belt and road initiative, which will connect Asia, Africa and Europe. But G7 countries just cannot stop it from happening, because China has already made considerable investment in different countries and now those countries owe to China. Honeywell is among big companies from United States who are looking to benefit from this gigantic project.
This is how my predictions contradicts with that of CNBC report and proves that the ‘game theory’ predictions are wrong. Game theory predicts decisions and counter-decisions. I am of the opinion that the entire arrangements of QUAD nations and AUKUS works more or less like how the Game theory works. Here the arrangements are to control China from dominating the world, but it cannot stop China’s economic growth.
A sweet deal for America from China or a bitter experience like what France had due to the AUKUS will change the arrangements completely. US, UK and Australia announcing new security partnership for Indo-pacific which helped Australia acquire nuclear powered submarine will explain the desperate selling skills of America. Once it was said that the Japan, France and United States will hold joint military drills in South and East China sea. I don’t think France is as excited as it was. There was Sharp outrage in Paris after Australia ditched a $40 billion deal to buy submarine from France. France pulled it’s envoy from both USA and Australia. Even Australia ditched QUAD in the past to join hands with China. Every nation in this race are there for their own good, while maintaining friendly relationship with others.
What is in it for India?
Time is ripe for India to negotiate with China to settle the boarder issues amicably and peacefully. It will be beneficial for both countries. Some of the Indian allies may express their displeasure, but the entire world will appreciate it over a period of time. China, who invests all around the world and goes all the way till Africa will be pleased to invest in India. India needs infrastructure for industrial development.
Vaccine hypocrisy and Vaccine Hesitancy in USA
The pandemic has made the world suffer. It resulted in thousands of deaths, economic losses and even starvation in several parts of the world. We are almost done with it and now it is time for vaccine diplomacy, vaccine hesitancy and vaccine racism.
United States of America is among the countries which suffered maximum number of casualties due to the pandemic. One cannot blame the government alone for this because, many in America were against lockdown and were protesting. They gathered everywhere in large numbers to support blacklivesmatter, ignoring the social distancing norms. Both politicians and the public happily participated in US presidential election rallies. There were self proclaimed celebrities with antibodies for corona virus who ventured out to motivate others to break the lockdown norms. These are some of the factors which led to highest number of deaths in America due to pandemic.
After all that, now it’s time for vaccine hesitancy, over concerns about side effects like vaccine can cause impotency and so on. People should understand that the scientists who invented vaccines have already done enough research and tests before it is made available for public. As far as unknown side effects are concerned, it is a condition applicable for any medicine we take for any illness. A genetically modified meat or vegetable we consume are also subjected to long term side effects like impotency and other ailments. No government can go for years of research and study on vaccine to deal with an emergency like pandemic. Taking vaccine will only act like modification in our biological order which helps our body to resist corona virus. Vaccine hesitancy is as good as saying that carbon emissions from vehicle is harmful and potential risk to life. Any argument or Political discussion on this is completely uncalled for and not taking vaccine for religious or whatever the reason, is nothing more than a public nuisance, which can risk life of others. Recent report suggests that about 2500 healthcare workers failed to comply with their Covid-19 mandate requiring at least one dose in USA. About 2000 employees of Fire and EMS department has sought of exemption from vaccine mandate, for silly reasons like religion. These figures are disturbing and are against Darwin’s theory.
Failure of vaccine diplomacy, UK accused of vaccine racism and travel ban politics
Vaccine racism by UK was in the news in the recent days. United Kingdom said that those vaccinated in India going to UK, will have to stay in home quarantine for ten days and test negative twice in those ten days. The reason stated by UK government first was that the Covishield, manufactured by Serum institute under licence from Astra Zenica is not acceptable. Then they said that it is about the vaccine certificate’s credibility the concern for them. India blamed that UK is into discriminatory policy for travellers from India and imposed reciprocal steps to UK’s quarantine rules for those travelling to India from UK, including those of Indian origin. I don’t understand why it’s only UK accused of discrimination, when every country has their own travel ban and restriction to safeguard the well being of their citizens. China has banned even their citizens from going back to China. Only 18 out of 29 European union countries have agreed to allow passengers from India. Australia considers Covishield as acceptable vaccine, but do not allow any foreign nationals to enter Australia. USA will allow foreigners only from November.
UK doubting vaccine certificate from India should be understood as India’s poor reputation. There are number of journalists from other countries who visited India and has written vividly about the corrupt practices in India. India loves foreigners coming to India as tourists. And there are examples of several foreign nationals who were killed brutally while traveling in India. There are several cases of foreign nationals returning back to their countries to report rape and sexual assault. Investigations in India regarding those rape and murder ends nowhere. There were many cases of Christian missionaries and nuns from other countries who were burnt alive. I have approached NIA, PMO, Home ministry of India, High Court of Kerala, Chief Minister’s office of Kerala, regarding someone obtaining a fake passport in my name and two attempts to murder me. And all of them are doing whatever they could to protect the culprit. A village panchayat member’s influence should be good enough to get vaccine certificate, even without taking the vaccine. And it will show in data base. India should be happy, if Indian passport is acceptable in UK and other countries.
India:
Law and order of convenience:
Throughout India, we find a politician- bureaucracy nexus. It was great, if it was for a social cause. Unfortunately, what we see in India is a nexus which is meant to promote corruption. The nexus, I am explaining here is not limited to politicians, bureaucracy and businessmen. It will extend to rowdies and gangsters who are created and maintained to carry out all sorts of illegal and illicit business. Thus, it creates an ecosystem for law and order of convenience, where it is difficult for any sincere officer from police, income tax, Revenue department, RTO or Forest department to act on complaints. People who are part of this nexus are there in every department including police and court officials, making it truly a ‘law and order of convenience’. I am presenting a topic here which is important in any investigation, but ignored by police department, not because they are unaware, but it is convenient.
Cyber cafes (internet libraries) or browsing centres are becoming rare nowadays. Thanks to advanced technology which has made smartphones, tablets and laptops cheaper than ever. We still see a considerable number of cyber cafes in towns and cities. As per the law, cyber cafes are supposed to have a unique registration number from a state government notified registration agency. And they are supposed to maintain records of those who use internet, which includes name, gender, contact number of user and number associated with users photo identity like Aadhaar number, pan card number or the driving licence number. As per the law, they are supposed to maintain even the browsing history of users for an year. There are softwares like ‘i-café manager’ to make it easy. I am sure some of you must have used ‘i-café manager’ at some point of time. And my question to you all is; do you all see these guidelines followed by those who run cyber cafes? In fact, the guidelines specify as how the cubicle in cyber cafés should be setup. My personal experience makes me say that eight out of ten cyber cafes will not even bother to ask customer’s name and identity. Many are not maintaining a record book(register). Software like ‘i-café manager’ is not there in eight out of ten cyber cafes.
This means, we have law for everything, but there is none to enforce it. Police can check this periodically and penalize those who are not following the guidelines. Worse, it is an opportunity for them to add more money to their respective police station’s bribe pool. But, they are not at all concerned and this is where the nexus comes into picture. Access to internet without having to produce identity will help someone to send bomb threat to Whitehouse or to FBI. We find many women and children becoming the victims of cyber bullying, which includes nasty comments on social media, uploading nude pictures and videos. Allowing Cyber cafés to operate without following the guidelines is extremely disturbing. Such cyber cafes are the one used by antisocial elements like Maoist, organizations linked to terrorism to make VOIP calls and for sending death threats. Recently, FBI cracked a case where the culprit was sentenced for 27 years jail term for facilitating child pornography on dark web. Even in India, we have perpetrators who use spy cameras in hotel rooms, public toilets to shoot nude videos and upload them on websites. Other than that there are commercial entities who make videos of child and adult pornography. They upload those videos on shady website without leaving any trace. The cyber cafes without checks and balances will help such people.
Another issue in India is mobile phone sim cards used for illegal activities by miscreants. All network service providers are doing everything they should, like taking picture of the customer who purchase their sim card along with collecting the customers photo identity and address proof. We still see antisocial elements using old and uneducated people to obtain sim card. Then there are youngsters who will buy sim cards in their name and sell it to help anti-social elements. The options provided by operators in India, for blocking a lost sim card is lengthy and can take up to a day. So, it is easy for someone to steal a phone for unlawful activities. And, these issues are ignored deliberately by police to help the nexus. People with common sense will not believe it, if one were to say that Indian police is ignorant about it.
Barath Bandh on 27 September 2021:
Most of the businesses in India were closed for more than a year due to nationwide lockdown, which was on and off. Barath Bandh on 27 September 2021 was completely uncalled for. It is unfortunate that state governments like Kerala and Tamilnadu backed farmer’s Bharath bandh, which sounds more like a bargain with poor farmers or solicitation of votes for opposition in the next election. These state governments are misleading farmers. Small farmers are saying that the changes make them vulnerable to big businesses. Union government say the reforms mean new opportunities and better price for farmers.
It’s been a year since the new farm law has come into effect. By now, it is known to farmers and political class that they are as vulnerable as they were. Union government and those who support the new farm law knows that there wasn’t any improvement in price for farm produces in the last one year, since the new law has come into effect. Ironically, no political party wants to educate farmers on ways to improve their condition and what their protest should be for. Instead, both opposition and the union government are engaged in diverting the attention of people and media. No political party who backed Barath Bandh wants to initiate discussion in parliament on an effective solution for farmers issues.
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